UDISE+ Analysis: 68 lakh dropouts between 2023-24 and 2024-25; is MoE underestimating dropout rates?

By Arun C Mehta

The Unified District Information System Plus (UDISE+) data for 2023-24 and 2024-25 show a significant reduction in computed dropout numbers across educational levels, particularly at the elementary stage, reflecting improved retention efforts. However, persistent attrition, especially at the secondary level, underscores ongoing challenges in achieving universal school education per NEP 2020 goals.

At the elementary level (primary and upper primary or Classes 1 to 8) the number of students who dropped out decreased from 54,36,853 in 2023-24 to 25,42,473 in 2024-25, a 53% reduction. This sharp decline, driven by a near-elimination of primary dropouts (0.3% rate) and a reduced upper primary dropout rate (3.5%), indicates more substantial retention efforts at early education stages, likely due to initiatives like mid-day meals or scholarships.

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The secondary level shows decline too but, in absolute terms, the numbers are still very high. Dropout numbers decreased from 53,48,707 in 2023-24 (14.1% rate) to 42,74,025 in 2024-25 (11.5% rate), a 20% reduction. Despite this improvement, the high absolute number of dropouts (42.7 lakh) highlights significant retention challenges at this level, requiring targeted interventions to sustain student progression.

UDISE+: Dropout rate analysis

The substantial reduction in elementary dropouts is a positive step toward universal education, reflecting effective retention policies. However, the persistent high dropout numbers at the secondary level (42.7 lakh) indicates barriers such as socio-economic challenges, inadequate infrastructure, or lack of academic support. To further enhance retention and meet the National Education Policy 2020’s goal of 100% GER by 2030, policies should focus on financial aid, improved school facilities, and tailored academic support, particularly for secondary students, to ensure progression through all educational levels.

Source: UDISEPlus, various years

The UDISEPlus 2024-25 data on state-specific dropout rates reveal significant challenges in India’s school education system, particularly in achieving the NEP 2020 goal of universal education by 2030.

Nationally, dropout rates improved from 2023-24 to 2024-25, falling to 0.8% at primary, 4.1% at upper primary, and 13.3% at secondary levels. However, states like Mizoram (10.8% primary, 11.6% upper primary, 17.4% secondary), Assam (3.8%, 5.0%, 17.5%), Arunachal Pradesh (4.8%, 5.1%, 18.3%), West Bengal (20.0% secondary), Karnataka (18.3% secondary), Bihar (9.3% upper primary, 6.9% secondary), Madhya Pradesh (6.3% upper primary, 16.8% secondary), and Gujarat (5.8% upper primary, 16.9% secondary) report alarmingly high dropout rates, especially at the secondary level, signalling severe retention issues.

Rajasthan also shows notable primary (3.6%) and upper primary (3.6%) dropout rates.

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Conversely, states like Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Jharkhand report zero or near-zero primary dropout rates, potentially indicating data inconsistencies.

These trends, particularly in critical states, highlight the need for targeted interventions like financial aid, improved infrastructure, and enhanced academic support to curb attrition and ensure equitable progress toward universal education.

Are UDISE+ dropout rates comparable?

The UDISE+ reports for 2022-23 and 2023-24, as well as 2024-25, indicate that individual student-wise data has been attempted for the first time at the national level (from 2022-23), marking a shift from the school-wise consolidated data used until 2021-22. As a result, the data in the 2022-23 to 2024-25 reports is not directly comparable with previous reports on various educational indicators.

However, analysis of the 2022-23 UDISEPlus report, released in December, 2024, shows that the dropout rates were calculated using grade-wise enrolment data from 2021-22.

While the 2022-23 report emphasises that its data is not comparable with that of 2021-22, it still relies on the 2021-22 data to calculate several efficiency metrics, including dropout rates, at various educational levels.

Since the UDISEPlus 2024-25 report suggests that data from 2022-23 to 2024-25 is not compatible with UDISEPlus 2021-22 and previous years, it would be of interest to know how retention rates presented in 2024-25 were calculated at primary (Classes 1 to 5), elementary (Classes 1 to 8), secondary (Classes 1 to 10) and higher secondary (Classes 1 to 12) levels, which would require enrolment in Class 1 in the years 2020-21, 2017-18, 2015-16 and 2013-14.

The reports come with a disclaimer that the ministry of education assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the data and indicators reported in the document as the report is based on voluntary uploading of data by schools with active UDISE+ codes, which somewhat discourages users from using data which is otherwise very rich and the only source of information for school education in India Enrolment in UDISEPlus 2024-25

UDISE Plus: Child population and enrolment ratio

UDISE+ 2024-25 enrolment indicators are based on the moderated official child population provided by the Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, National Commission on Population, Ministry of Health, and Family Welfare (July 2020).

The projected child population reveals that the 6 to 13-year-old population declined to 18.54 crore (185.42 million) in 2024-25 from 18.63 crore (186.36 million) in 2023-24, thus showing a decline of 9.4 lakh in absolute terms or 0.51 percent in percentage form. The secondary age population – 14 to 15 years – declined by 3.91 lakh, and that of the higher secondary age group, 16 to 17 years, by 9.96 lakh.

The projected population suggests that India has a total child population aged 6 to 17 years of 28 crore (280 million) in 2024-25, down from 28.6 crore (286 million) in 2021-22.

The progress in the enrolment ratio, if any, is also partially because of the decline in the clientele population, especially at the secondary and higher secondary levels of education.

UDISEPlus: Enrolment ratios

Recent trends in enrolment ratios – gross and net (GER and NER) – reveal significant challenges in achieving universal education goals. The gross enrolment ratio is the percentage enrolled at a level of education out of the total population in the age group relevant for that level.

The data shows declines across multiple indicators, particularly after 2021-22, coinciding with SDMIS (student database).

• Primary and elementary: Sharp GER declines (90.9% and 90.6%) and low NERs (76.9% and 82.8%) in 2024-25, particularly at the primary level, signal a significant setback for NEP’s 100% GER goal by 2030, driven by enrolment drops (-20.56 million elementary), and school closures.
• Upper primary: Modest recovery in GER (+0.6%) shows progress, but levels remain below 100%, requiring more substantial retention efforts.
• Secondary and higher secondary: Slight GER gains (78.7% and 58.4%) are positive, but low NERs (47.5% and 35.8%) highlight gaps in age-appropriate enrolment, far from NEP’s target.

Source: UDISE Plus, various years

Declining GERs at primary and elementary levels, combined with slow progress at secondary and higher secondary, indicate India is off track for 100% GER by 2030. Urgent interventions are needed to address primary dropouts, school closures, and transition gaps, especially for marginalised groups. While improved data quality provides a more accurate picture, it highlights the considerable gap between the current status and universal education goals.

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School Efficiency: Dropout, transition, retention

The UDISE Plus data for 2024-25 provides critical efficiency indicators to assess the retention capacity of India’s school education system. These indicators, available at the all-India and state levels but absent at district and block levels, highlight trends in dropout, transition, and retention rates. Rising dropout rates and declining transition rates pose challenges to achieving universal school education, as outlined in the NEP 2020.

UDISE Plus dropout rates are calculated based on all schools rather than common schools, a shift from the methodology used between 2005-06 and 2017-18, which may underestimate dropout rates.

In 2024-25, some states reported zero dropout rates at primary and upper primary levels, which may reflect data inconsistencies. Reverting to the common schools methodology or clarifying the benefits of the current approach is recommended for accurate flow rate reporting.

The UDISEPlus report mentions that dropout rates are now calculated based on individual student data, which means that the conventional flow rate method was not used. In the course of time, the ministry may like to share the number of records lying in the SDMS-UDISE drop box.

Dropout rates

• Primary level: The dropout rate decreased significantly from 1.9% in 2023-24 to 0.8% in 2024-25, a marked improvement from the peak of 7.8% in 2022-23. Girls (0.3%) have a lower dropout rate than boys (0.0%), indicating better retention among girls, though the zero rate for boys suggests potential data reporting issues, which is also evident in primary enrolment, which has drastically declined in 2024-25.
• Upper primary level: The dropout rate declined from 5.2% in 2023-24 to 4.1% in 2024-25, down from a high of 8.1% in 2022-23. Girls (3.5%) show a slightly higher dropout rate than boys (2.9%), reversing the minimal gender difference observed in 2023-24.
• Secondary level: The dropout rate improved from 14.1% in 2023-24 to 13.3% in 2024-25, down from 16.4% in 2022-23. Girls (11.5%) continue to have a lower dropout rate than boys (9.6%), reflecting a gender advantage in retention.

Transition rates

• Primary to upper primary: Improved from 88.8% in 2023-24 to 91.5% in 2024-25, with boys (93.0%) transitioning slightly higher than girls (92.2%), indicating improved progression.
• Elementary to secondary: Rose from 83.3% in 2023-24 to 85.9% in 2024-25, with boys (87.3%) outperforming girls (86.6%), though the gap is narrow.
• Secondary to higher secondary: Improved marginally from 71.5% in 2023-24 to 72.4% in 2024-25, with boys (77.9%) showing a higher transition rate than girls (75.1%), reflecting better male progression.

Retention rates

• Primary (Classes 1 to 5): Increased from 85.4% in 2023-24 to 91.5% in 2024-25, with boys (93.4%) slightly outperforming girls (92.4%), indicating stronger retention.
• Elementary (Classes 1 to 8): Rose from 78.0% in 2023-24 to 81.4% in 2024-25, with boys (84.2%) retaining better than girls (82.8%).
• Secondary (Classes 1 to 10): Declined slightly from 63.8% in 2023-24 to 61.7% in 2024-25, with boys (64.2%) retaining better than girls (62.9%).
• Higher secondary (Classes 1 to 12): Decreased marginally from 45.6% in 2023-24 to 45.0% in 2024-25, with boys (49.6%) outperforming girls (47.2%).

Source: UDISE+, different years

Observations and NEP 2020 implications

Progress in Retention: Significant reductions in dropout rates at primary (0.8%) and upper primary (4.1%) levels in 2024-25, alongside improved transition (91.5% primary to upper primary) and retention rates (91.5% primary, 81.4% elementary), signal progress toward universal education.

• Persistent challenges: High secondary dropout rates (13.3%) and low retention at secondary (61.7%) and higher secondary (45%) levels indicate ongoing attrition, hindering NEP 2020’s goal of 100% GER by 2030.
• Gender dynamics: Girls show lower dropout rates at primary and secondary levels, but boys outperform in transition and retention across most levels, suggesting targeted interventions are needed to sustain girls’ progression.
• Policy needs: Addressing data inconsistencies (for example, zero dropout rates), enhancing transitions to secondary and higher secondary levels, and improving retention through incentives (such as scholarships) are critical to achieving NEP goals.

Excerpted and published with permission from the full analysis on educationforallinindia.com. Arun C Mehta is former professor and head of the Education Management Information System (EMIS) department at National Institute of Educational Planning and Administration (NIEPA), New Delhi. In that capacity, he oversaw UDISE and its previous iterations from 2002 to 2017-18.